I had a conversation with one of my salespeople at Novatorius earlier this year, and it stuck with me. In our conversation, they asked me where I found a lead. When I explained that the lead came from a business strategy consultant I met at a networking event, they exclaimed wow, that’s really lucky!

It wasn’t luck at all. And yet, it totally was.

I didn’t know that I was going to get this referral from this person. I didn’t even know I was going to meet this person at the networking event. But I did make bets that lead to that opportunity.

I made a bet that going to that networking event would help me find multipliers to help me grow my business. I’m pretty good at connecting with people at conferences, and these events usually yield a few opportunities I can’t reach online.

Then, I made another bet. I bet that a business strategy consultant could refer business to me. I figured that they would be talking to a lot of leadership teams who are looking to make big changes in their business.

I also believed that those people will likely need my services along the way. In other words, he’d be talking to the exact decision makers I need, right before they make a big website change.

Did I know they were going to refer me? No way. For all I knew, they had a dozen other people clamoring about the exact same offers, and he already had someone in his pocket he trusted, and that I’d never see a referral from them. But, I got lucky.

So, referrals are luck. The skill is in placing the right bets.

Placing the Right Bets

In Texas Hold ’em, you get to see two cards for little to no cost. These two cards only make up for a fraction of the information to know you can win. And in most games, you’ll see several players fold just from looking at the flop.

They’ve played enough hands to know how the game plays out, even with limited information.

When you’re building a referral engine, you’re betting on people with your time, and focus. You’re talking to people, gathering info to see how you can help, and how much time to give. What you get out of it varies, and there’s definitely a lot more nuance than a simple transaction, but if you’re zoomed out, it’s still a bet.

• I bet one evening away from home that this event will find me a multiplier
• I bet one afternoon meeting that this business will turn into a customer
• I bet this person could help my client move the needle
• I bet this client will demand too much of my time

The businesses that grow are run by people who make good bets. And bets are particularly tricky when you’re just starting out because you don’t have a lot of leeway to bet wrong.

Like poker, information always comes at a cost. There’s a baseline of information you can gather inexpensively, but the cost to learn more becomes expensive over time. The worst part is you often don’t even know the cost to see more information.

In networking, this is your time, and the cost is the opportunity cost of spending it making a bad bet on the wrong person.

Betting on Clients

A common trap is when escaping feast or famine comes when professionals make a seemingly great bet on a high-paying client. The problem is, they over-commit and can’t keep finding new opportunities to continue to grow.

A high-paying client looks like a great bet, but can reveal itself as too demanding once you’re deep in delivery. If your business wasn’t ready to serve them and still grow, then congratulations! You just got a job!

The bad bet here isn’t taking on that client. Instead, it’s that they believed they could do it all. Either way, they never considered the risks of the bet in the first place.

Usually, people in this position simply see “escape from feast-or-famine” and rush in. They assume their grit, determination, and intelligence will get them through the project unscathed. They rush to prescribe the solution, and don’t even bother thinking about what they need to actually get it done.

In prospecting and lead-generation, It’s all about protecting your time. Effective bets cast a wide net, disqualify fast, and give time where it looks lucrative.

But once you switch into real discussions and project planning, that flips. These bets demand slowing down and being honest about your capacity.

Good bets are made when you can find the right amount of information at the right time. Master that, and you will find that you get lucky more often.